Asset Class Allocation
Commodities Deep-Dive
CRB breakdown — Agriculture 41%, Energy 39%, Metals 20%. Ranked by multi-timeframe momentum with stage analysis.
Questions Answered
Q2.1 Which commodity sub-class has the strongest momentum?
Q2.3 Where are we in the commodity super-cycle?
Q2.5 Are commodities confirming or diverging from equities?
Commodity Super-Cycle Sequence
1. Precious Metals (Gold, Silver)
→2. Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum)
→3. Energy (Crude Oil, Gas)
→4. Agriculture
Currently in Phase 1-2: Precious and Industrial metals leading. Energy lagging. Matches historical commodity super-cycle pattern.
Fetching commodity data...
Key Commodity Insights
Gold has broken out to all-time highs, driven by central bank buying (4x disclosed purchases), de-dollarization, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Copper showing a massive cup-and-handle breakout above $5 resistance - driven by green energy transition, EVs, AI data centers, and supply disruptions.
Brent Crude remains in a downtrend below its chandelier stop - bearish for energy sector.
PICK (Global Metals & Mining ETF) in strong uptrend with chandelier stop intact.
Frameworks Applied
Ray Dalio: Regime identification — rising growth + rising inflation = commodity outperformance
Stanley Druckenmiller: Macro theme concentration — identify the dominant commodity super-cycle phase and overweight it
Momentum Scoring: Multi-timeframe momentum (1W/4W/13W/26W/52W) and chandelier exit signals for trend confirmation